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MNI Bank Indonesia Preview - October 2022: A Close Call But 50bp Expected

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Bank Indonesia (BI) meets on October 20 and economists are projecting it to raise rates 50bp again, but the forecast is not unanimous. Of the 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg 19 expect rates to be raised by 50bp, 11 by 25bp and 1 by 100bp.
  • In September, BI said that it raised rates by an unexpected 50bp to be forward-looking and pre-emptive and this could be behind its monetary policy decision making again this month, especially as it was behind the rest of Asia in starting its tightening cycle.
  • Inflation, growth and FX policy were also given as reasons for the September move and can all be used again to justify either a 25bp or 50bp rate hike. On balance, though, the current environment suggests a further 50bp move to 4.75%, but there is a high probability that they could opt for a more moderate 25bp.

For the full piece, see here: BI Preview - October 2022.pdf

Asia Bank - PreviewHomepageBank of Indonesia - PreviewEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewEmerging Market News

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