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MNI Bank Indonesia Preview - October 2023: Extended Pause, Focus On IDR

INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK
  • Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.75% at its October 19 meeting with the policy focus on IDR stabilisation as it has depreciated further versus the greenback and on a trade-weighted basis since the last meeting. The weaker IDR doesn’t mean that there needs to be another hike when the economy doesn’t need it, BI has other tools it can use to strengthen the currency.
  • Inflation remains contained and at the bottom of BI's target band. While there may be little downside left for headline inflation due to less favourable base effects, and higher oil & food prices, BI looks at second-round effects and so core developments will be its focus. Core CPI moderated 0.2pp to 2% in September.
  • BI's pause is likely to be extended well into 2024 as it shores up the rupiah while it remains unclear when the Fed will be finished tightening. A prerequisite for the start of an easing cycle is likely to be IDR stabilisation.
  • See full preview here.
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