Free Trial

MNI Bank Of Thailand Preview: June 2024: Many Reasons To Wait

The Bank of Thailand meets on June 12 and we expect it to leave rates at 2.5%, where they have been since September 2023.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The Bank of Thailand (BoT) meets on June 12 and we expect it to leave rates at 2.5%, where they have been since September 2023, as there has not been anything since the April meeting to drive a dovish shift. Three analysts from 23 on Bloomberg are forecasting a 25bp cut.
  • BoT has numerous reasons to remain on hold rather than easing. There is significant uncertainty over the impact of government stimulus and how the global economy will develop, including when the Fed will begin its easing cycle. It is also unlikely to want to be seen as giving in to persistent government pressure to cut rates.
  • Also, BoT believes that its policy rate is not holding growth back and thus while it is close to neutral there is little reason to change it. But 2 MPC members voted for rate cuts at the last two meetings and it will be seen as dovish if their number grows.

Click here for full preview:

BoT Preview - June 2024.pdf

176 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The Bank of Thailand (BoT) meets on June 12 and we expect it to leave rates at 2.5%, where they have been since September 2023, as there has not been anything since the April meeting to drive a dovish shift. Three analysts from 23 on Bloomberg are forecasting a 25bp cut.
  • BoT has numerous reasons to remain on hold rather than easing. There is significant uncertainty over the impact of government stimulus and how the global economy will develop, including when the Fed will begin its easing cycle. It is also unlikely to want to be seen as giving in to persistent government pressure to cut rates.
  • Also, BoT believes that its policy rate is not holding growth back and thus while it is close to neutral there is little reason to change it. But 2 MPC members voted for rate cuts at the last two meetings and it will be seen as dovish if their number grows.

Click here for full preview:

BoT Preview - June 2024.pdf