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MNI BCB Preview - Decision Due Around 2230BST/1730ET

BRAZIL
  • Consensus believes the Copom will keep the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75%. However, a continued decline for IPCA inflation figures and the substantial improvement for inflation expectations across all time horizons point to the BCB board softening its language in this week’s statement.
  • COPOM options negotiated at B3 imply roughly 75% odds of a rate cut in August with most of the ones betting on this early cut seeing a timid 25bps Selic cut.
  • The full preview with analyst views is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/54232/MNI%20Brazil%20Central%20Bank%20Preview%20-%20June%202023.pdf

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