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MNI BCB Preview - Sep 2024: Set to Commence Tightening Cycle

Brazil’s central bank is expected to initiate a tightening cycle, hiking the Selic rate by 25bps to 10.75%.
LatAm Bank - PreviewHomepageCentral Bank of Brazil - PreviewAnalysisEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewGlobalStoryRegion

Executive Summary

  • Following the anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the BCB is conversely expected to begin a tightening cycle at its September meeting.
  • Consensus points to a 25bp Selic rate hike to 10.75% on the back of de-anchored inflation expectations, robust growth and pressure on the exchange rate this year.
  • The shift in analyst projections in recent weeks has been striking, with the median estimate swinging firmly toward expectations of tighter monetary policy.
  • Although most analysts expect a 25bp move, the range of forecasts is from unchanged to a bolder 50bp move, highlighting the importance of the accompanying statement/guidance from the BCB committee.

Click to view the full preview: MNI BCB Preview - Sep 2024.pdf

MNI (LONDON)

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Executive Summary

  • Following the anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the BCB is conversely expected to begin a tightening cycle at its September meeting.
  • Consensus points to a 25bp Selic rate hike to 10.75% on the back of de-anchored inflation expectations, robust growth and pressure on the exchange rate this year.
  • The shift in analyst projections in recent weeks has been striking, with the median estimate swinging firmly toward expectations of tighter monetary policy.
  • Although most analysts expect a 25bp move, the range of forecasts is from unchanged to a bolder 50bp move, highlighting the importance of the accompanying statement/guidance from the BCB committee.

Click to view the full preview: MNI BCB Preview - Sep 2024.pdf

MNI (LONDON)

Keep reading...Show less