Free Trial

MNI BCB Preview - Sep 2024: Set to Commence Tightening Cycle

Brazil’s central bank is expected to initiate a tightening cycle, hiking the Selic rate by 25bps to 10.75%.

Executive Summary

  • Following the anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the BCB is conversely expected to begin a tightening cycle at its September meeting.
  • Consensus points to a 25bp Selic rate hike to 10.75% on the back of de-anchored inflation expectations, robust growth and pressure on the exchange rate this year.
  • The shift in analyst projections in recent weeks has been striking, with the median estimate swinging firmly toward expectations of tighter monetary policy.
  • Although most analysts expect a 25bp move, the range of forecasts is from unchanged to a bolder 50bp move, highlighting the importance of the accompanying statement/guidance from the BCB committee.

Click to view the full preview: MNI BCB Preview - Sep 2024.pdf

MNI (LONDON)

Keep reading...Show less
281 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Executive Summary

  • Following the anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the BCB is conversely expected to begin a tightening cycle at its September meeting.
  • Consensus points to a 25bp Selic rate hike to 10.75% on the back of de-anchored inflation expectations, robust growth and pressure on the exchange rate this year.
  • The shift in analyst projections in recent weeks has been striking, with the median estimate swinging firmly toward expectations of tighter monetary policy.
  • Although most analysts expect a 25bp move, the range of forecasts is from unchanged to a bolder 50bp move, highlighting the importance of the accompanying statement/guidance from the BCB committee.

Click to view the full preview: MNI BCB Preview - Sep 2024.pdf

MNI (LONDON)

Keep reading...Show less