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MNI BNM Preview - March 2024: On Hold, Ringgit Stability In Focus

The consensus is for no change tomorrow at the BNM policy meeting. This is also our strong bias

Asia Bank - PreviewHomepageCentral Bank of Malaysia - PreviewEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewEmerging Market News

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The consensus is for no change tomorrow at the BNM policy meeting. This is also our strong bias.
  • Recent MYR weakness has taken center stage from a policy standpoint. This has raised prospects that the BNM may sound more hawkish this week, or potentially even hike rates to curb MYR weakness. A hike is a low probability outcome in our view though. Given still wide rate differentials with the US, a 25bps hike is unlikely to provide lasting FX support.
  • Equally, FX weakness is likely to prevent BNM from sounding too dovish, even with a patchy growth backdrop of late.
  • Click to view the full preview:

    • BNM Preview - March 2024.pdf


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The consensus is for no change tomorrow at the BNM policy meeting. This is also our strong bias.
  • Recent MYR weakness has taken center stage from a policy standpoint. This has raised prospects that the BNM may sound more hawkish this week, or potentially even hike rates to curb MYR weakness. A hike is a low probability outcome in our view though. Given still wide rate differentials with the US, a 25bps hike is unlikely to provide lasting FX support.
  • Equally, FX weakness is likely to prevent BNM from sounding too dovish, even with a patchy growth backdrop of late.
  • Click to view the full preview:

    • BNM Preview - March 2024.pdf