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MNI BoC Preview, Dec'23: How Dovish Is The Question

MNI: CANADA 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The BoC is almost unanimously seen keeping its policy rate on hold at 5% for the third meeting running.
  • Remarks from Gov. Macklem two weeks ago could heavily dictate the message we receive from the single page statement, including that excess demand is now gone and policy may now be restrictive enough.
  • More nuanced remarks will have to come from Dep Gov Gravelle on Thursday, with Scotia noting potential for a change in framework with focus on ending QT.
  • Markets have rallied significantly since the Oct 25 decision, potentially skewing greater risk of a hawkish market reaction, at least for FI, but one that is unlikely to persist.
  • Data will ultimately set the tone, with recent trends showing a non-trivial increase in the unemployment rate along with core inflation moderation.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL PREVIEW HERE:

BOCPreviewDec2023.pdf


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