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MNI BOC Review - Jan 2022: Hiking In March And Beyond

BOC

Our January 2022 BOC meeting review has just been published on our website - and emailed to subscribers. Includes MNI Analysis and 13 Analyst Note summaries:

https://marketnews.com/mni-boc-review-jan-2022-hiking-in-march-and-beyond


  • A hawkish hold with the removal of previous forward guidance and signaling that rate increases are coming with balance sheet runoff potentially at the same time.
  • Governor Macklem made sure it was seen as hawkish in the press conference: “this is a significant shift in monetary policy, and we judged that it is appropriate to move forward in a deliberate series of steps”.
  • Failure to deliver a hike that was 70% priced has made little difference to analysts’ rate path projections, with most of those reviewed calling for 4-5 hikes in 2022.
  • Sell-side balance sheet runoff expectations have been pulled forward with somewhat of a consensus for passive runoff to start in April, but we await timing details.


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