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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI BoC Review, Mar'24: See You In Five Weeks
Executive Summary
- The BoC left its overnight rate at 5% and said it’s still too early to consider lowering the policy rate.
- The concluding paragraph of the decision statement was identical to January and the threat from persistent underlying inflation was mentioned multiple times across statements, but wage pressures may be easing.
- Macklem noted some progress in latest inflation data but wants further deceleration in coming months and greater consistency across a range of metrics.
- It was met with a mildly hawkish reaction. Cumulative cuts dropped to 18-20bps for June from ~22.5bp priors. Amongst analysts, Scotia stand out with their view of a first cut in September.
- Apr 10 is just five weeks away but sees one CPI report, two labour reports and the quarterly BOS/CSCE surveys as specifically flagged by Macklem. It comes ahead of the federal budget on Apr 16, with the risk of surprise fiscal impulse possibly making the Bank less willing use the April decision to tee-up a rate cut in June, but the Bank was prone to surprising last year and won’t feel obliged to give a meeting’s notice.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.