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MNI BOE Preview - November 2021: Should Wait but Probably Hike

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Thursday's MPC meeting will be the most watched since the Bank's aggressive easing at the beginning of the pandemic. Markets are fully pricing a 15bp hike, 14/23 analysts in our survey are looking for a hike but we have not heard from some of the centrist MPC members since the September meeting, who could act as kingmakers in this week's decision.
  • The MNI Markets team thinks there will be a 15bp hike this year and a further 25bp hike in February but we do not have a strong conviction on whether the first hike will be this week or in December. We think the MPC should wait until December but see a slightly higher than 50% chance the MPC pull the trigger this week.
  • We are pleased to confirm that this month will see MNI Instant Answers return to the BOE for the first time in the post-Covid era.
  • We summarise 24 sell-side analyst previews as well as summarising key comments from MPC members since the September MPC meeting.

Full document:

MNI BoE Preview - Nov21.pdf

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