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MNI BOE Review: Hybrid Forward Guidance

BOE
  • The MPC voted to raise rates by 25bp to 0.50% and immediately end reinvestments of maturing gilts held under the APF, as expected.
  • However, unexpectedly four members hawkishly dissented, with Haskel, Mann, Ramsden and Saunders all voting for a 50bp hike.
  • We note that the forward guidance is now a hybrid of that seen in Aug/Sep/Dec with the Nov guidance, combining "coming months" with modest tightening".
  • MNI Markets team looks for further 25bp hikes in March and May, but we think the market has got a bit carried away with pricing for H2-22.
  • The full document includes summaries of 24 sell-side analyst reviews and their new forecast.

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