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MNI BoJ Review - June 2023: Unchanged, YCC Timing Shift Still Uncertain

BOJ
  • The June BoJ policy meeting largely unfolded as expected, with no major changes to the key policy parameters or the policy outlook. In the press conference, BoJ Governor Ueda stated that core inflation is likely to moderate sub 2% in the second half of this fiscal year.
  • There has been a lot of speculation the BoJ would raise its inflation projections at the July meeting (28th). Ueda stated the central bank will evaluate carefully how prices evolve ahead of that meeting. Ueda also stressed uncertainty around the sustainability of recent wage gains. Outside of inflation/wage developments, offshore developments could also be key, with Fed policy and its influence on USD/JPY important in the run up to next policy meeting.
  • Sell-side views certainly see the July meeting as live from a YCC standpoint, but there is no clear consensus that a change will be delivered at the meeting. Market views, and our own, will firm up closer to the date, particularly with more inflation/wage data to hand, coupled with greater clarity around the Fed backdrop.
  • Full review here:
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