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MNI BoK Preview - October 2022: Back To A Big Step 50bps Hike

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Since the last policy meeting the biggest shift has been in terms of renewed hawkishness around the Fed outlook. BoK Governor Rhee has stated recently, external factors will be a key factor in determining Wednesday’s outcome and that the Fed outlook has been more hawkish compared to their expectations at the August policy meeting.
  • Higher utility prices in Q4, in terms of electricity and gas prices, suggest it may be too early to declare victory from an inflation standpoint. The BoK also stated following the recent inflation data that it expects inflation to stay in a 5-6% range for a considerable period of time. Moreover, core pressures are not showing signs of rolling over.
  • Concerns around the external growth backdrop is one factor that may drive a slower rate hike pace. Domestic conditions are holding up better (cyclical low in the unemployment rate at 2.5% etc) or at least aren’t a high enough concern yet to outweigh inflation. On this basis, while the growth outlook can’t be discounted, it’s unlikely to prevent a 50bps move at tomorrow’s meeting.
  • Click to view the full preview:BoK Preview - October 2022.pdf
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