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MNI BoT Preview - August 2022: Rising Core CPI Sets Stage For Hike

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Thailand's headline inflation unexpectedly slowed in July, but price pressures broadened and growth in core CPI accelerated, virtually touching the upper limit of the BoT's official tolerance band. Headline inflation remains well above the target range.
  • Concerns about the growth outlook and financial stability still constrain the BoT's ability to engage in aggressive policy normalisation, even as recent rhetoric suggested a pivot towards making inflation-fighting a priority.
  • We expect the BoT to deliver a 25bp rate hike this week, its first rate rise since late 2018, as the MPC launches efforts to curb price growth. The Committee will likely reaffirm its "flexible and agile" approach going forward.

Click to view the full preview: MNI BoT Preview August 2022.pdf

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