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MNI BoT Preview - September 2023: +25bps Projected, But A Very Close Call

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • We sit in the +25bps camp for tomorrow's BoT meeting, which would take the policy rate to 2.50%. We note though it is a very close call. The sell-side community is close to evenly split between a hike and no change (the balance rests with no change per the Bloomberg survey).
  • No change arguments rest with the recent evolution of data, with inflation under control and growth underwhelming. This is likely to see the central bank revise down its projections for both growth and inflation at this meeting.
  • Still, the central bank is worried about the new expansionary policies of the government and has stated it will be forward looking in terms assessing the policy outlook. Rates are close to neutral but aren't in sharp contractionary territory. THB has weakened, the Fed looks to be to remain higher for longer and the next BoT meeting isn't until end November. These factors tip us to project a hike tomorrow, but equally we wouldn't be surprised by a hawkish hold.
  • Full preview here:

    • BoT Preview - September 2023.pdf


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