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Inflation Concerns Underpin Bear Steepening


Bullish Theme

MNI BRIEF: All Fed Eyes On US CPI Data


Expectations for a sharp jump in headline CPI although all hopes on an orderly data release.

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Federal Reserve officials will be closely watch the U.S March CPI data at 0830ET, with many observers looking for a further spike higher on the the February outturn. Expectations are for a jump in headline CPI to 2.5% y/y -- close to where the Fed is targeting for a medium-term average rate -- well above the 1.7% y/y recorded in February. Ex-food and energy may see a slightly less extreme jump, with the median forecast looking for a jump to 1.5% y/y from last month's 1.3% y/y.

Fed officials are mixed in their views, with one telling MNI the inflation outlook was 'messy', although Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin told us 'disinflationary forces are still powerful.'

However, whatever the number, market participants just hope it is released in a more orderly fashion than Friday's factory gate price data.