MNI BRIEF: Atlanta Fed Model Revises US Q2 GDP Outlook Higher

The Atlanta Fed has revised it's Q2 GDP forecast higher to an annualized 13.2% from the 10.4% forecast last week, according to the regional Fed bank's latest weekly real-time GDPNow model.

That was mostly driven by positive construction and manufacturing data released Monday by the Institute for Supply Management and the Census Bureau. The ISM's monthly manufacturing index fell to 60.7 in April from 64.7 in March but still signaled expansion, and construction spending was up 0.2%, a slower-than-expected gain but still an improvement over February's 0.6% decline.

The nowcast of Q2 real gross private investment growth increased to 32.2% from the 28.7% forecast last week, and the Q2 PCE nowcast was revised higher to 12.1% from 8.7%. The GDPNow model is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed and is best viewed as a real-time estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data.