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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: ECB's Wunsch Sees Possible September Hike
The European Central Bank could raise rates in September after the hike already flagged for July, Belgian National Bank Governor Pierre Wunsch said on Friday.
Eurozone core inflation is proving sticky, said Wunsch, presenting BNB economic projections. May’s data was better, but helped by one-off factors such as cut-price train tickets in Germany.
“We don’t really see the beginning of a slowdown,“ he said.
While Wunsch noted ECB President Christine Lagarde was clear that holding rates in July would be a “very big surprise”, September’s decision will depend on data, particularly core inflation.
“We have another three readings [before the September meeting] and if it remains around 5% on a yearly basis there is a very good chance we will hike again in September,” he said, adding that there was currently no discussion of any pause in hikes.
Wunsch noted risks including the eurozone’s remaining dependency on Russian gas and possible supply bottlenecks during the green transition. (See MNI INTERVIEW: EU Risks Winter Gas Squeeze -German Energy Head)
“There is a path for inflation to go to 2% in 2025, but it’s a relatively narrow path and depends on real wages going back to the levels of 2019,” he said.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.