Free Trial

MNI BRIEF: Economists Boost 2024 US Growth Forecasts - NABE

Economists are marking up their forecasts for U.S. growth in 2024 and increasingly expect a soft landing with declining inflation and little rise in the unemployment rate, according to the latest National Association for Business Economics survey consisting of a panel of 41 forecasters.

The economy is seen expanding an inflation-adjusted 2.2% in 2024, up from 1.3% forecasted in the December survey, the group said Monday. The headline PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is seen increasing 2.1% Q4/Q4 in 2024 and 2% Q4/Q4 in 2025. Core PCE inflation is seen rising 2.2% Q4/Q4 in 2024 and 2.1% Q4/Q4 in 2025, while the median forecaster expects an average of 3.9% unemployment for 2024.

NABE survey respondents cited "too much monetary policy tightness" as the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook, and nearly 80% of respondents expected the Fed to begin cutting interest rates by June. Nearly three-quarters of the panelists do not expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to fall below 6% by the end of 2024. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Hot US Economy Complicates Fed Cut Calculus)

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | evan.ryser@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | evan.ryser@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.