MNI BRIEF: Economists Boost 2024 US Growth Forecasts - NABE

Economists are marking up their forecasts for U.S. growth in 2024 and increasingly expect a soft landing with declining inflation and little rise in the unemployment rate, according to the latest National Association for Business Economics survey consisting of a panel of 41 forecasters.

The economy is seen expanding an inflation-adjusted 2.2% in 2024, up from 1.3% forecasted in the December survey, the group said Monday. The headline PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is seen increasing 2.1% Q4/Q4 in 2024 and 2% Q4/Q4 in 2025. Core PCE inflation is seen rising 2.2% Q4/Q4 in 2024 and 2.1% Q4/Q4 in 2025, while the median forecaster expects an average of 3.9% unemployment for 2024.

NABE survey respondents cited "too much monetary policy tightness" as the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook, and nearly 80% of respondents expected the Fed to begin cutting interest rates by June. Nearly three-quarters of the panelists do not expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to fall below 6% by the end of 2024. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Hot US Economy Complicates Fed Cut Calculus)