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MNI BRIEF: Fed Projects Balance Sheet Growing Again In 2026

(MNI) Washington
WASHINGTON (MNI)

The Federal Reserve is projecting to run off USD2.5 trillion from its balance sheet before stopping in mid-2025 then holding constant for about a year at USD5.9 trillion or 22% of U.S. GDP, according to a report Tuesday by the New York Fed.

"Once reserves reach the assumed long-run level, the portfolio resumes growth in mid-2026 to match the assumed growth in demand for Federal Reserve liabilities," the report said, with projections based on assumptions drawn from the FOMC and the March 2022 Surveys of Primary Dealers and Market Participants. "By 2030, the SOMA totals $7.2 trillion, or 22 percent of GDP." The balance sheet is currently USD8.946 trillion.

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The Federal Reserve is projecting to run off USD2.5 trillion from its balance sheet before stopping in mid-2025 then holding constant for about a year at USD5.9 trillion or 22% of U.S. GDP, according to a report Tuesday by the New York Fed.

"Once reserves reach the assumed long-run level, the portfolio resumes growth in mid-2026 to match the assumed growth in demand for Federal Reserve liabilities," the report said, with projections based on assumptions drawn from the FOMC and the March 2022 Surveys of Primary Dealers and Market Participants. "By 2030, the SOMA totals $7.2 trillion, or 22 percent of GDP." The balance sheet is currently USD8.946 trillion.

Keep reading...Show less