MNI BRIEF: Japan Q3 GDP To fall 0.1% Q/Q; -0.3% Annualised

Japan's economy in Q3 will likely have fallen 0.1% q/q – or a 0.3% annualised fall – the first contraction in four quarters, due to weaker public investment and despite stronger private consumption and capital investment, economists predicted.

The forecast follows Q2's 1.2% q/q growth, or an annualised 4.8%.

Some economists, however, expect the economy to grow in Q3 for the fourth straight quarter.

Economists note private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, has risen 0.2% q/q, recovering from Q2's 0.6% drop.

They expect capital investment in Q3 to have risen 0.3% q/q, also recovering from Q2's 1.0% fall, and public investment to fall 1.0%, slowing from the previous quarter's 0.2%.

Net exports of goods and services, meanwhile, are expected to make a negative 0.1 percentage point contribution to the total domestic output, after rising 1.8 pp in Q2.

The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for Q3 at 0850 JST on Nov 15 (2350 GMT on Nov 14).