MNI BRIEF: Japan's Q4 GDP Up 0.6%; First Growth in 2 Quarters

Japan's economy posted the first growth in two quarters in Q4 in the wake of stronger private consumption and net exports, although capital investment fell, preliminary GDP data released by the Cabinet Office Tuesday showed.

Q4 GDP rose 0.2% q/q, or an annualized 0.6%, following a revised -0.3% q/q, or an annualized revised -1.0% for the third quarter of 2022.

The Q4 growth was weaker than the MNI median forecast that pointed to a rise of 0.5% q/q, or an annualized 1.9%.

Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan's GDP, rose 0.5% q/q in Q4, after a revised 0.0% in Q3. The median forecast was for a 0.4% q/q rise. Business investment fell 0.5% q/q in Q4, the first drop in three quarters following an unrevised 1.5% in Q3. The median forecast was for a 0.1% rise.

Net exports of goods and services -- exports minus imports -- made a positive 0.3 percentage point contribution to total domestic output after pushing Q3 GDP growth down 0.6 percentage point. Exports rose 1.4% q/qr in Q4 after rising 2.5% q/q in Q3. Imports fell 0.4% in Q4 after rising 5.5% in the previous quarter.

Private-sector inventories contributed a negative 0.5 percentage point to Q4 GDP following +0.1 percentage point in Q3, while public investment fell 0.5% on quarter, contributing -0.0 pp to GDP.