MNI BRIEF: November Job Trends Support 2024 Soft Landing -ADP

U.S. hiring is set to slow next year to a still-solid pace, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said Wednesday after the ADP National Employment Report showed a lower-than-expected pace of hiring in November and softening wage growth. Private sector employment added 103,000 jobs last month, compared to 113,000 in October and the 130,000 analysts expected.

Three straight months of job losses in the leisure and hospitality sector marks the "end of an era" when restaurants and hotels were consistently the biggest job creators in the post-Covid recovery, Richardson told reporters on a call. "This is a pivot from some of the numbers that we've grown accustomed to. It is a return to normal but it is, in my view, at the end of an era."

"Where we go from here is a labor market that is still playing a part in the economy consistent with a soft landing, still playing a role in bringing inflation down with pay growth also slowing. So it's a nice labor market bundle for a Federal Reserve still keeping a close eye on inflation. But it also means that in 2024, we're likely to see solid but moderating jobs."

The gap between pay gains experienced by job changers and job stayers also shrank to its smallest in three years, meaning "the premium that workers were getting from jumping and switching jobs has narrowed," Richardson said.