MNI BRIEF: NY Fed: 1-Yr Inflation Expectations Jump to 4.8%

The New York Fed's median measure of one-year-ahead consumer inflation expectations rose 0.8 pp to 4.8% in June, a new high for the series and the eighth straight month of gains.

Median inflation expectations three years out remained unchanged at 3.6%, the New York Fed said. The increase in the year-ahead measure was driven by respondents who have some college education but measures of disagreement across respondents reached new series' highs at both year-ahead and three-year-ahead horizons, the Survey of Consumer Expectations showed.

The survey also showed households' labor market expectations continued to improve as the mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months decreased from 12.6% to 10.9%, reaching a new series' low, and the mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months increased by 0.2 percentage point to 54.2%, the highest reading since February 2020.