MNI BRIEF: RBA Knew Yield Target Was "Losing Credibility"

The Reserve Bank of Australia understood that its yield target policy on government bonds was losing credibility and endorsed a decision by the governor to stand out of the market for several crucial days in October between the release of inflation data and an RBA board meeting.

The minutes of the RBA's Nov. 2 board meeting released on Tuesday show it faced a dilemma on the yield target after surprising inflation data on Oct. 27 showed trimmed mean inflation at 2.1% and in the RBA's target band of 2% to 3% for the first time in five years.

The RBA "faced a difficult choice of entering a thin market in an effort to defend a target that was losing credibility or standing out of the market" until the board meeting. RBA Governor Philip Lowe then used his discretion and the RBA stood out of the market and did not defend the 0.10% target on April 2024 bonds, a step endorsed by the board.

With inflation rising faster than expected, there was also a possibility that the RBA could raise interest rates before 2024, which was inconsistent with the 2024 yield target.