MNI BRIEF: Survey Data Has Surprised On Upside - BOE Pill

The most recent survey data come in above expectations and the economy may be a little stronger than the Monetary Policy Committee's collective forecast in February, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said Thursday at a Week in Wales event.

"Survey indicators that have become available since the publication of the forecast have surprised to the upside, suggesting that the current momentum in economic activity may be slightly stronger than anticipated," he said. Pill painted a mixed picture on the labour market, noting that some high frequency data, such as the KPMG/REC permanent staff pay measures, had fallen quite sharply but that "private sector regular pay growth – which was published after the MPC’s forecast was finalised – surprised slightly to the upside."

Pill noted in his previous speech that the MPC would undertake its next full forecast round in May, which could suggest that there is merit in waiting to see how the data unfold, although markets are pricing in a 25 basis point hike when the MPC meet later this month.