MNI BRIEF: UK Nov Retail Sales Soar; Set to Lift Q4 GDP

UK retail sales jumped by 1.4% in November, far exceeding expectations of a 0.8% rise. After the latest gain, the retail sector stands 7.2% ahead of pre-pandemic levels in February of 2020. October sales were revised to show a 1.1% gain, well above the initially-reported 0.8% improvement. That means sales could fall by as much as 4.8% in December and still leave Q4 volumes above the level of Q3.

Friday's data include Black Friday sales on 26 Nov although many retailers ran promotions during the final week of November. The collection period does not include Cyber Monday, which fell on 29 Nov, which will hit the Dec data. Excluding petrol, sales increased by 1.1%.

Supermarket sales remained subdued, declining by 0.2%, but non-food volumes rose by 2.0%, lifted by a 2.8% jump in clothing sales, regaining pre-pandemic levels for the first time. Internet sales as a proportion of the total eased to 26.9%, the lowest ration since March of 2020, from 27.3% in October.