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MNI BSP Preview - Dec 2024: Soft Inflation Should See A Cut

Benign Inflation Opens Door for Further Cuts.
Asia Bank - PreviewBangko Sentral ng Pilipinas - PrevAPACPhilippinesAnalysisEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewStory

MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary: 

  • The Philippines economy is showing resilience in the face of some mixed signals from their regional neighbours, yet there is one data release that will hold the most weight with the BSP decision this week: that being the CPI.
  • The BSP has a CPI target for 2024 of 3.00% +/- 1% and whilst November saw a slight increase to +2.5% (from +2.3% in October) the benign inflation environment provides an opportunity to cut at a time when regional uncertainty is growing.  
  • On balance, the economic data presents a fairly balanced picture for the economy.  Currently the Bloomberg survey of economists have 25 respondents, the majority of which are forecasting a 25bps cut at tomorrow's policy meeting outcome.   
  • See the full preview here: CB Preview - BSP December 2024.pdf
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MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary: 

  • The Philippines economy is showing resilience in the face of some mixed signals from their regional neighbours, yet there is one data release that will hold the most weight with the BSP decision this week: that being the CPI.
  • The BSP has a CPI target for 2024 of 3.00% +/- 1% and whilst November saw a slight increase to +2.5% (from +2.3% in October) the benign inflation environment provides an opportunity to cut at a time when regional uncertainty is growing.  
  • On balance, the economic data presents a fairly balanced picture for the economy.  Currently the Bloomberg survey of economists have 25 respondents, the majority of which are forecasting a 25bps cut at tomorrow's policy meeting outcome.   
  • See the full preview here: CB Preview - BSP December 2024.pdf