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MNI BSP Preview - February 2022: Patience

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Philippines's central bank is expected to keep policy settings unchanged on Thursday. On several occasions, Governor Diokno told various audiences that a rate hike in the first half of the year is unlikely, as Bangko Sentral is trying to preserve policy space and make sure that the economic recovery is in full swing.
  • The rebasing and reweighting of the Philippines' consumer price index shifted headline inflation lower at the start to the year, which overlapped with continued downward trajectory in price growth. CPI growth is now firmly within the BSP's target range, allowing policymakers to wait with tightening.
  • While central bankers in EM space feel the pressure of imminent Fed tightening, Governor Diokno played down the importance of this factor, noting that Philippine policymakers can afford not to move in lockstep with their U.S. colleagues.

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