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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI BSP Preview - February 2023: +50bps Likely, But A Close Call
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The Bloomberg consensus for tomorrow’s BSP meeting sits at +50bps, which would take the policy rate to 6.00%. However, 11 out of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect only a +25bps move, with the remainder in the 50bps camp. So, whilst tighter policy is clearly expected, the market is close to being evenly split between a 25bps or 50bps outcome. Our bias rests with a 50bps hike, although it is clearly a close call.
- The case for tighter policy once again remains straight forward and is centered on price pressures. The continued move higher in both headline and core inflation pressures is clear justification for further policy adjustments. The Jan CPI report blew market and BSP expectations out of the water. The other concern for the BSP may be inflation expectations becoming entrenched.
- The case for going only 25bps rests with the cumulative impact of previous tightening. Since the BSP started raising rates, a cumulative 350bps of rate hikes has been delivered since March last year. BSP Governor Medalla has also stated that non-monetary policy measures need to be optimized to bring down inflation pressures. On balance though, we see the risks skewed towards a 50bps tightening given known inflation outcomes.
- Click to view the full preview here:
BSP Preview - february 2023.pdf
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.