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MNI BSP Preview - June 2024: ​Still On Hold, Uncertainty Around Easing Timing ​

The BSP is likely to hold rates steady at the June policy meeting.

Asia Bank - PreviewHomepageBangko Sentral ng Pilipinas - PrevEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewEmerging Market News

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • None of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg see a policy change tomorrow. This is also our strong bias, which if realized, will see the policy rate held steady at 6.50%. This is where the policy rate has been since October last year. Much of the focus for this meeting is likely to be around where the BSP’s policy bias rests.
  • Various remarks in recent weeks/months from BSP and government officials has suggested the central bank could ease policy settings in the second half. Critically such a move could come before the Fed’ starts its easing cycle. Our sense is that the BSP will still exhibit some degree of caution around the timing of rate cuts.
  • Recent comments from Finance Secretary Recto suggested as much and appeared to push back on the notion of the BSP moving before the Fed.
  • Click to view the full preview here:

    • BSP Preview - June 2024.pdf



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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • None of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg see a policy change tomorrow. This is also our strong bias, which if realized, will see the policy rate held steady at 6.50%. This is where the policy rate has been since October last year. Much of the focus for this meeting is likely to be around where the BSP’s policy bias rests.
  • Various remarks in recent weeks/months from BSP and government officials has suggested the central bank could ease policy settings in the second half. Critically such a move could come before the Fed’ starts its easing cycle. Our sense is that the BSP will still exhibit some degree of caution around the timing of rate cuts.
  • Recent comments from Finance Secretary Recto suggested as much and appeared to push back on the notion of the BSP moving before the Fed.
  • Click to view the full preview here:

    • BSP Preview - June 2024.pdf