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MNI Bull, Bear and Base Cases (2/2)

RIKSBANK

Bear case:

  • Riksbank still does not signal any probability of a 2024 hike, keeping the repo rate forecast at zero throughout the forecast horizon and signalling concern about rising Covid-19 cases, particularly across the Eurozone, and the risk of renewed lockdowns. EURSEK to move higher and at least pressure the 10.22 level. Above here resistance is around 10.2550.

Bull case:

  • Riksbank either notes the possibility of tapering QE reinvestments in 2022 or includes repo rate hikes earlier in the forecast than Q4-24. Even if these hikes are less than the market is pricing, it will be seen as a green light for markets to become more optimistic as it will signal the Riksbank is potentially setting up the next meeting in February to have an even more hawkish outlook. If it was a meaningful change to the repo rate up to Q3-24 we would expect to see EURSEK fall to around the 10.10 level (close to the 50% retracement of the August to November fall).
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