MNI: Canada Oil, Gas Output Would Drop 70% In Net Zero World

Canadian oil and gas production would drop about 70% by 2050 if nations reach a goal limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a projection Tuesday by the federal energy regulator, a massive shift for the G7's biggest energy exporter.

Crude oil production would fall to 1.2 million barrels per day or 76% lower than in 2022, while natural gas production would decline 68% to 5.9 billion cubic feet per day. Output of heavier crude from Canada’s oil sands based mostly in Alberta would fall 83% under that scenario, according to the report. Electricity would be Canada’s biggest replacement source from wind and hydroelectric, and greater efficiency would curb total energy use.

“There is still a place for fossil fuels in a net zero world,” particularly in some types of industrial production, Canada Energy Regulator Chief Economist Jean-Denis Charlebois told reporters.

The scenario also assumes Canada reaches its goal of net zero emissions by 2050, and current policies don’t yet get to that target, he said. In a scenario using current global policies and slow technological progress, Canada's oil production climbs 20% and natural gas by 24%. (MNI INTERVIEW:Climate Change A Slow Pandemic For Central Banks and MNI INTERVIEW: Canada Export Windfall Over, Dollar Weakens-EDC)