MNI: Canada Retail Sales Show Continued Strength Into 2nd Qtr

Canada's April retail sales grew much faster than economists predicted and kept growing according to a May flash estimate, the federal statistics agency said Wednesday, extending strength that nudged the central bank to resume interest-rate hikes earlier this month. 

Sales increased 1.1% in April according to Statistics Canada, with gains across eight of nine categories led by general merchandise and food. That's much faster than the economist consensus for a 0.2% increase. The agency's flash estimate for May showed a 0.5% gain.

Bank of Canada officials lifted the policy rate a quarter point to 4.75% earlier this month, ending a pause earlier this year after eight prior increases, and many investors see another hike at next month's decision. Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry said part of the reason to tighten again was surprising first-quarter strength in consumer spending and on items like furniture that are usually more sensitive to higher borrowing costs.

The April report did show the largest decrease in "core" retail sales came from a 1.6% decline in furniture, electronics and appliance retailers. Overall core sales -- which exclude automobiles and gasoline -- still rose 1.5%. 

After removing price changes such as more expensive gasoline, the so-called volume of sales rose a more modest 0.3%. That measure is a closer indication of the contribution to gross domestic product. Still, any gains continue to defy predictions Canada is heading into a recession.

A separate report today puts more weight behind the case for another rate hike, with monthly new home prices rising for the first time since last August. That's more evidence Canadians began opening their wallets again soon after the Bank signaled rate pause in January. Canada also has one of the world's most stretched housing markets, adding to the dangers of keeping monetary policy where it is now.