Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive summary:
- The Russian central bank is expected to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 7.50%
- Pro-inflationary risks do not yet justify a rate hike, while the pace of disinflation and poor activity data does not warrant restarting the easing cycle.
- Therefore, the CBR are likely to cautiously remain on hold at least until April when the Bank updates its economic forecasts.
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The Russian central bank is expected to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 7.50% in March as pro-inflationary risks due to a tight labour market, weaker RUB and high and unanchored inflation expectations keep the Russian economy in an elevated state of uncertainty despite disinflation continuing its course in recent months. The CBR Board are expected to maintain their relatively hawkish policy stance amid pressure from the government earlier this year to indicate readiness to loosen policy and upgrade economic forecasts.
In its February meeting statement, the central bank stated that if pro-inflation risks intensify, the Bank will consider increasing the key rate at its upcoming meeting, warning that the medium-term balance of risks remains tilted towards pro-inflation risks and that short-term risks have increased again and still prevail over disinflationary risks. Since then, headline inflation eased slightly from +11.77% y/y in January to +10.99% y/y in February, helped by lower food inflation and an outright drop in goods prices, though remains well above the central bank’s 4% target.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.