Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- Key policy rate expected unchanged as partial mobilization prompts structural changes
- The September statement detailed a bank that’s satisfied that policy rates of 7.50% are neutral
- One-off disinflationary factors fading into Autumn
With this policy set, and the information available as of September 16th meeting, the bank was content to see their forecasts showing inflation slowing to a clip of somewhere between 5 and 7% next year. This saw price rises much closer to their 4% target in 2024, but a series of structural and supply-side changes will have clouded the bank’s view this month. This argues in favour of no change to policy this month and no changes into year-end.
The week following September’s decision, President Putin announced partial mobilization across Russia, effectively withdrawing as many as 300,000 from the working age population – making for a considerable structural shift in assumptions for the CBR. This, allied with an easing of disinflationary pressure, makes a strong case for the bank’s focus to shift away from prices and the currency and toward growth and supporting the domestic economy.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.