TRUDEAU SAYS IT LOOKS LIKE BOC WILL BE LOWERING RATE AGAIN

MNI BRIEF: Canada Commits To Just One Of Three Fiscal Anchors

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI CBR Review: Sell-Side Views (2/2)

RUSSIA
  • Goldman Sachs say the CBR’s decision is possibly a reaction to political pressure after a presidential economic adviser blamed loose monetary policy for the depreciation of the RUB and argued that a strong RUB is in Russia's interest.
  • In Goldman Sachs’ view, the RUB will continue to weaken unless oil prices rise. Furthermore, the transmission of rates to the RUB is likely to be slow since the financial channel is weaker than it used to be and the main transmission of interest rates to the currency would instead be through lower domestic demand and weaker imports, which will take time.
  • They say whether the rate hike will suffice remains primarily a function of fiscal policy and oil prices. Overall, Goldman Sachs think it seems more likely that higher oil prices could support the RUB in the short run.
  • Commerzbank say the RUB’s problems are not down to domestic interest rates since the old rate was sufficient to fight inflation. They say that the rate hike is a sign that the CBR has to react to political pressure from the Kremlin and that it seems likely that CBR policy will increasingly deviate from its former path of reason.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.