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MNI Chicago Survey™: Evidence for Easing PPI​

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The Chicago Business Barometer™ Survey found evidence for further price push-back in the March survey, which contributes to the narrative of cooling factory-gate inflation in coming months.

  • US final demand PPI cooled by -0.1% m/m and slowed by 1.1pp to +4.6% y/y in February. Easing supply chain pressures and commodity prices have aided the decline in US factory-gate inflation, which peaked at +11.7% y/y in March 2022.
  • Producer price inflation appears set to continue a downwards trajectory throughout 2023 as base-effects filter in. The second consecutive -0.1% m/m decline in services PPI is a positive signal for easing underlying pressures, yet the short-term outlooks remain clouded, with core goods continuing to see upwards pressure at +0.3% m/m in February.
  • The Chicago Business Barometer™ Prices Paid subindex edged up only marginally after the substantial February deceleration. The Prices Paid subindex has a strong correlation coefficient of 0.85 with US annualized PPI -and as such this month's survey points towards PPI cooling at a similar rate in March.


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The Chicago Business Barometer™ Survey found evidence for further price push-back in the March survey, which contributes to the narrative of cooling factory-gate inflation in coming months.

  • US final demand PPI cooled by -0.1% m/m and slowed by 1.1pp to +4.6% y/y in February. Easing supply chain pressures and commodity prices have aided the decline in US factory-gate inflation, which peaked at +11.7% y/y in March 2022.
  • Producer price inflation appears set to continue a downwards trajectory throughout 2023 as base-effects filter in. The second consecutive -0.1% m/m decline in services PPI is a positive signal for easing underlying pressures, yet the short-term outlooks remain clouded, with core goods continuing to see upwards pressure at +0.3% m/m in February.
  • The Chicago Business Barometer™ Prices Paid subindex edged up only marginally after the substantial February deceleration. The Prices Paid subindex has a strong correlation coefficient of 0.85 with US annualized PPI -and as such this month's survey points towards PPI cooling at a similar rate in March.