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Free AccessMNI China Daily Summary: Monday, January 16
EXCLUSIVE: China should achieve growth in line with expectations of about 5% this year, but a post-zero-Covid consumption-led rebound will be constrained by a continuing house price downturn and high youth unemployment, former World Bank Country Director in China Bert Hofman told MNI.
EXCLUSIVE: Chinese households could add to last year’s historically high savings in 2023 should pessimism over future income and house prices continue, despite official hopes that the Covid reopening will spur a consumption boom, advisors and economists told MNI,
LIQUIDITY: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY82 billion via 7-day reverse repos and CNY74 billion via 14-day reverse repos with the rates unchanged at 2.00% and 2.15%, respectively. PBOC conducted CNY779 billion via one-year MLF with rate unchanged at 2.75%. The operation has led to a net injection of CNY233 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY2 billion reverse repos and CNY700 MLF today, according to Wind Information. The operation aims to keep banking system liquidity reasonable and ample, the PBOC said on its website.
RATES: The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) rose to 2.1849% from 1.8447% on Friday, Wind Information showed. The overnight repo average increased to 1.5821% from the previous 1.2528%.
YUAN: The currency weakened to 6.7281 against the dollar from 6.7099 on Friday. The PBOC set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.7135, compared with 6.7292 set on Friday.
BONDS: The yield on 10-year China Government Bond was last at 2.9475%, up from Friday's close of 2.9250%, according to Wind Information.
STOCKS: The Shanghai Composite Index increased 1.01% to 3,227.59, while the CSI300 index was up 1.56% to 4,137.96. The Hang Seng Index edged up 0.04% to 21,746.72.
FROM THE PRESS: The Yuan could hit 6.4 against the dollar in 2023, as widening China-US growth differential’s add support to Yuan recovery, according to Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Finance & Banking at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Zhang thinks the US is facing a potential economic downturn this year, and this coupled with China’s recovery, are reasons to see further Yuan strengthening on the way. For the first half of 2023, Yuan/Dollar will fluctuate around 6.5-6.9, while in the second half a move down to 6.4 might occur. Growth in China can be above 5.5% this year, but difficulties remain to restore consumer confidence and boost demand for real estate, he said. (Source: Yicai.com)
Beijing’s local government is targeting 4.5% of GDP growth for the city in 2023, according to a recent report. Municipal leaders are expecting Beijing’s public revenue will increase by 4%, that unemployment will be under 5%, and consumer prices to increase by 3%. Looking to enhance people’s livelihoods, the report aims to add 260,000 new jobs, and build 90,000 units of affordable housing, as well as develop social security and private pension schemes. For financial services, the Beijing Stock Exchange will expand its scale of transactions and promote the use of the digital RMB. Key industries to focus on are: integrated circuits, gene therapy, pharmaceutical, satellite internet, hydrogen energy, and new energy vehicles. (Source: Securities Times)
The number of critically ill patients suffering from Covid-19 remains high, but fever clinics and emergency departments have passed their peak number of cases, according to Caixin. In a recent press conference, it was announced China has recorded 60,000 covid-19 deaths in hospitals, ten times the number previously announced, Caixin said, quoting data from the National Health Commission. The number of deaths may be higher, due to delays in reporting and trouble accounting for deaths occurring at home, the paper said. The average age of fatal cases was 80.3 years old, with 90.1% 65 years old and above.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.