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MNI China Press Digest June 15: LPR, Fiscal Stimulus, Rate Gap

MNI (Singapore)
  • The following lists highlights from Chinese press reports on Wednesday:
  • The People’s Bank of China is expected to keep its Loan Prime Rate unchanged this month considering the actual corporate loan rates have already been falling and lenders are still suffering high borrowing costs, the Securities Daily reported citing market analysts. After the 15bps cut in the five-year and above tenor of LPR last month, it is less necessary to touch the policy rate in the short term, said Liang Si, researcher with Bank of China. But there is still room for cuts later this year, particularly for the five-year and above tenor to boost the property market, said Xie Yunliang, an analyst with Cinda Securities, noting the PBOC could liberalise deposit rate mechanism to lower lenders’ funding costs in a bid to leave more room for LPR cuts.
  • China fiscal authorities may issue special treasury bonds or front load part of the quota of 2023 local government special bonds in the second half of this year if domestic and overseas economic headwinds maintain strong, China Securities Journal reported Wednesday. Considering both companies and households are reluctant to expand debt loads, the government has to add leverage to boost the economy, said Zhang Jun, economist with Morgan Stanley. He suggested the special treasury bonds could focus on small and medium-sized private companies and households hit by the pandemic to shore up employment.
  • The reversal in US-China interest rate differentials in long-term government bond yields is likely to be sustained due to policy divergences, but the impacts on capital outflows from China are reducing, Caixin reported Wednesday. Since the end of May, the outflow from domestic equity and bond markets has improved as the pandemic situation gets better in major cities, the report said citing a note from China Merchants Securities. The 10-year CGB yield will remain at a low level since economic indicators have shown a slow recovery and inflation is seen largely in check for now, market analysts said.
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