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MNI CNB Preview - November 2021: CNB To Hike By 75bps

Czech National Bank

Executive Summary:

  • The CNB is likely to proceed with another 75bps hike on November 4 despite rising uncertainty
  • The Czech 2Y10Y yield curve inverted in the end of October, increasing the odds of an economic downturn
  • Sharp deceleration in the economic activity may pressure the CNB to slow down or pause the pace of its tightening cycle after this meeting


Link to full preview:

CNB Preview Nov 4.pdf

The Czech National Bank is likely to proceed with another 75bps hike on November 4, which would levitate the benchmark rate to 2.25%. Even though the probability of a smaller hike (i.e. 50bps) is clearly non-negligible, it is very unlikely that the CNB will surprise again at this meeting with a bigger hike than 75bps, considering that the Covid uncertainty will certainty impact growth expectations.


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