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MNI CNB Review - February 2022: CNB Enters Last Phase of Tightening Cycle

Czech National Bank
Czech National Bank

Executive Summary:

  • The CNB decided to proceed with a 75bps hike in yesterday's meeting (as expected), raising to policy rate to 4.5%
  • The CNB has now entered into the last phase of the tightening cycle, with the terminal rate expected to reach 5% (at most) in Q1/early Q2 before gradually decline from H2 2022 as inflationary pressures start to ease
  • The CNB lifted its 2022 inflation forecast to 8.5% (vs. 5.6% previously)

Link to full review:

Feb 3 CNB Review.pdf

The CNB decided to proceed with a 75bps hike in yesterday's meeting (as expected), levitating the policy rate to 4.5%. The policy rate is now standing above the 2008 high of 3.75%. The CNB has now entered into the last phase of the tightening cycle, with the terminal rate expected to reach 5% (at most) in Q1/early Q2 before gradually decline from H2 2022 as inflationary pressures start to ease (figure 1, left frame).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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