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MNI Commodity Analysis: Iranian Barrels Flood the Market in May Brushing off Sanctions

OIL

Executive summary:


  • June has brought about further reports of potential headway between Iran and the US in nuclear talks but regardless of their accuracy and progress, Iranian barrels have flooded the market at a post-sanction high in May of around 1.5-1.6mn bpd. June however is indicating that pace may not be sustainable.
  • The volumes of sanctioned barrels, including those from Iran, Russia and Venezuela have acted as a downward force on crude prices this year, catching many market balance expectations off guard as China in particular steps in to soak up discounted volumes.
  • An ageing Iranian fleet caught up in long journeys to Asia requiring ship-to-ship transfers as well as stuck in floating storage means that May’s pace, which has already shown cracks in June, may not hold up long term but will still serve as a significant supply side factor in global markets.
  • Even as Iran’s export pace slows, it’s depleted storage can be refilled and used for a further tranche of high exports later in the year as the fleet recovers at a point when OPEC cuts may have started tightening the market.

  • Full piece here:


    MNI Commodity Analysis - Iranian Barrels Flood the Market in May Brushing off Sanctions.pdf



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