MNI Commodity Analysis: Russian Crude Exports Breaching Commitments as Refining Still Lags

• Russian crude flows have ticked higher through October based on Bloomberg tracking. Although an export cut benchmark was not announced, calculations suggest they are above such levels. Russia claims oil products are now part of the cut – complicating an outright pace.
• Russian refinery runs remain weak due to seasonal maintenance – their return is expected to help reduce Russian crude exports but not at pace until mid-November with some returns delayed.
• Russian oil product exports have been sluggish due to weaker refinery runs and export bans still in place at the start of October. A touted kerosene ban this week further clouds export outlooks from the country this winter.
• US sanctions on two vessels carrying Russian oil in breach of the price cap earlier this month is dissuading western vessels from carrying sanctioned barrels, apparent in the latest figures.

MNI Commodity Analysis - Russian Crude Exports Breaching Commitments as Refining Still Lags.pdf