MNI Commodity Analysis - Saudi Warns Shorts Ahead of June OPEC+ Meeting

Executive Summary:

• Crude markets are weighing up the possibility of further OPEC+ production cuts at their June 3-4 meeting in Vienna or whether the latest voluntary commitments and growing Chinese demand will result in enough market tightening in the second half of 2023 to prompt a rollover.
• Numerous bank forecasts, along with OPEC themselves, forecast a shortfall in global production versus demand later this year while a May crude price recovery may be enough to keep producers happy at present levels.
• Vessel tracking shows that key producers such as Saudi are slowing their exports volumes through April/May indicating that voluntary cuts are being adhered to. As for Russia, high export volumes suggest cuts are not being met but there is growing confidence that high refinery maintenance is pushing barrels onto the export market and that cuts are actually underway.

MNI Commodity Analysis – Saudi Warns Shorts Ahead of June OPEC Meeting.pdf