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MNI Commodity Weekly: Rush to Restore Russia’s Damaged Refineries

Commodities Weekly AnalysisAnalysisCommodities

Executive Summary:

  • Rush to Restore Russia’s Damaged Refineries: Russia is promptly repairing its refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes, but upcoming seasonal maintenance may add further pressure to its run-rates.
  • Oil Markets: Crude front month has bounced between $88.7/bbl and $92.2/bbl since a rally at the start of April with heightened geopolitical risk set against global economic growth uncertainty. Weak demand also weighs on diesel markets, although gasoline cracks have rallied with the expectation a of tight summer market. (pg.4)
  • Analyst Views: See latest analyst views with key focus on Middle East escalations. (pg.7)
  • Gas Markets: European natural gas prices rallied this week to the highest in over three months due to heightened LNG supply risks amid tensions in the Middle East, though curtailed natural gas pipeline supplies from Norway and forecasts for cooler weather. Global LNG benchmark prices also surged higher this week, pricing in risks to LNG supplies in case of further escalations in the Mideast conflict. In contrast, US natural gas prices traded lower this week due to curtailed feedgas supplies to LNG terminals due to seasonal maintenance and outages. (pg.10)
Full piece here:

MNI Commodity Weekly - Rush to Restore Russia’s Damaged Refineries.pdf

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Executive Summary:

  • Rush to Restore Russia’s Damaged Refineries: Russia is promptly repairing its refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes, but upcoming seasonal maintenance may add further pressure to its run-rates.
  • Oil Markets: Crude front month has bounced between $88.7/bbl and $92.2/bbl since a rally at the start of April with heightened geopolitical risk set against global economic growth uncertainty. Weak demand also weighs on diesel markets, although gasoline cracks have rallied with the expectation a of tight summer market. (pg.4)
  • Analyst Views: See latest analyst views with key focus on Middle East escalations. (pg.7)
  • Gas Markets: European natural gas prices rallied this week to the highest in over three months due to heightened LNG supply risks amid tensions in the Middle East, though curtailed natural gas pipeline supplies from Norway and forecasts for cooler weather. Global LNG benchmark prices also surged higher this week, pricing in risks to LNG supplies in case of further escalations in the Mideast conflict. In contrast, US natural gas prices traded lower this week due to curtailed feedgas supplies to LNG terminals due to seasonal maintenance and outages. (pg.10)
Full piece here:

MNI Commodity Weekly - Rush to Restore Russia’s Damaged Refineries.pdf