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MNI Commodity Weekly: Sanctioned Barrels Face Potential Shake-Up

OIL

Executive Summary:


  • Sanctioned Barrels Face Potential Shake-Up: A second Trump term draws questions around sanctioned barrel flows which have flourished in recent years, namely out of Iran and Venezuela. However, Asian demand weakness and OPEC+ spare capacity take the sting out of any potential action.
  • Oil Markets: Crude markets pulled back on Wednesday, driven by a stronger U.S. dollar after Trump’s win and reversing earlier gains due to an OPEC+ output hike delay announced at the start of this week. Soft China demand and uncertainty over potential stimulus are weighed against an expected Fed rate cut and Middle East supply risks. US gasoline crack spreads remain rangebound with a seasonal lull in demand while diesel spreads rallied to their highest since early August.
  • Analyst Views: See latest analyst views on oil markets.

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