MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Bull Leg Extends

Price Signal Summary – AUD Bull Leg Extends

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract has traded higher this week, confirming once again a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. Note too that the contract has recently cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high, reinforcing current positive trend conditions. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s gains confirm, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• EURGBP has traded sharply higher this morning and this has resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8645, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average highlights a stronger short-term reversal and signals potential for a continuation higher - for now. USDJPY traded higher Tuesday as the pair extended the recovery from 140.97, the Dec 14 low. For now, the rally appears to be a correction. Last week’s sell-off reinforced current bearish conditions. The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and Tuesday’s gains reinforced current conditions. This marks an extension of last week’s move higher and the break of resistance at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high and a bull trigger. Scope is seen for a climb for a climb towards the 0.6800 handle.
• Gold traded sharply higher Dec 13. This signals a short-term reversal and the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb toward key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and recent gains appear to be a correction. Resistance to watch is $76.14, the 50-day EMA. Last week’s fresh trend low reinforces a bearish theme and the break of $69.08, Dec 7 low, confirms a resumption of the trend.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract has gapped higher today. This confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 1.1017 High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1009 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 1.0966 @ 05:45 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 1.0864/1.0804 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.0724 Low Dec 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0693 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.0665 61.8% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally

The recovery in EURUSD that started on Dec 8 is a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Nov 29 - Dec 8. The rally suggests scope for a test of key short-term resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Key support has been defined at 1.0724, the Dec 8 low. Initial support is at 1.0864, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 1.2800 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.2721 @ 06:03 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 1.2600 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and recent gains reinforce this theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a rising trend. Key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.2800 next. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2600, the 20-day EMA. The pullback from last Friday’s high is considered corrective.

EURGBP TECHS: Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8716 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Dec 11 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.8684 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Dec 11 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8669 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8663 @ 08:11 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 0.8571/8549 Low Dec 15 / 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8420 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP has traded sharply higher this morning and this has resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8645, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average highlights a stronger short-term reversal and signals potential for a continuation higher - for now. Sights are on 0.8684 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, key support is unchanged at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 148.51 High Nov 30
• RES 3: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 2: 146.59 High Dec 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 145.26 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - 14 sell-off
• PRICE: 143.73 @ 06:39 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 142.25 Low Dec 19
• SUP 2: 140.97/71 Low Dec 14 / 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run
• SUP 3: 140.23 2.00 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 139.11 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

USDJPY traded higher Tuesday as the pair extended the recovery from 140.97, the Dec 14 low. For now, the rally appears to be a correction. Last week’s sell-off reinforced current bearish conditions. The pair breached support at 141.71, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started on Nov 13. Sights are on 140.71, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.59, the Dec 11 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Holds For Now

• RES 4: 161.78 High Dec 1
• RES 3: 159.93 High Dec 4
• RES 2: 159.01 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 158.67 High Dec 12
• PRICE: 157.28 @ 07:15 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 155.39/153.23 Low Dec 19 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

EURJPY traded sharply higher Tuesday. Resistance at 157.68, the Dec 11 high, has been breached. The next hurdle to watch is 158.67, the Dec 12 high, which remains intact for now. A clear break of this level would signal a short-term reversal. Below 158.67, the latest recovery appears to be a correction and trend signals remain bearish. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on at 153.23, the Dec 7 low and the bear trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Leg Extends

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 2: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 0.6776 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6773 @ 07:53 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 0.6655 Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 0.6617/6526 20-day EMA / Low Dec 07
• SUP 3: 0.6494 Low Nov 20
• SUP 4: 0.6453 Low Nov 17

The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and Tuesday’s gains reinforced current conditions. This marks an extension of last week’s move higher and the break of resistance at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high and a bull trigger. Scope is seen for a climb for a climb towards the 0.6800 handle and 0.6821, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 0.6526, the Dec 7 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6617, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Heads South

• RES 4: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 3: 1.3712 High Nov 24
• RES 2: 1.3619 High Dec 7 and 12 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.3415/3533 High Dec 15 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3346 @ 07:59 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 1.3320 Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 1.3283 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.3228 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3184 Low Aug 1

The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and the continuation lower this week reinforces this condition. The pair has recently cleared the bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3283, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3619, the Dec 7 / 12 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 138.76 3.50 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 138.49 3.382 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 138.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 137.58 3.00 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• PRICE: 137.43 @ 05:19 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 135.81/134.59 Low Dec 15 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 132.59 Low Dec 1

Bund futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 137.58, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 134.37, the Dec 8 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 119.438 3.618 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 119.320 3.50 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 119.202 3.382 proj of the Nov 14 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.160 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 119.110 @ 05:40 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 118.330 Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: 117.852 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 117.800 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.725 20-day EMA

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Short-term resistance at 118.480 has recently been cleared, the Dec 7 high, resuming the uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens the 119.202 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 117.800, the Dec 8 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 1: 106.527 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• PRICE: 106.385 @ 05:51 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 106.160/019 Low Dec 15 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.955 Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 105.640 Low Nov 29

Trend conditions in Schatz futures remain bullish and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has cleared 106.290, the Dec 6 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 106.527, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 105.955, Dec 13 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Northbound

• RES 4: 103.51 2.764 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 103.44 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Oct 23 bear leg
• RES 2: 103.12 2.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: 103.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 102.68 @ 08:08 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 100.93 Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: 100.20 High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 3: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 98.38 20-day EMA

The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract has gapped higher today. This confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on the 103.00 handle next where a break would strengthen the bullish theme. Initial firm support lies at 100.20, the Dec 13 high. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bullish Price Sequence Extends

• RES 4: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 120.97 2.618 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 120.60 2.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 120.00 Psychological round number
• PRICE: 119.75 @ Close Dec 19
• SUP 1: 117.18 High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 114.13 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 112.70 Low Nov 24

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the contract traded higher yesterday. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has recently cleared resistance at 117.22, Dec 7 high and a bull trigger. The breach maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 120.00 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 115.70, the Dec 8 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4634.00 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 4586.00 @ 06:16 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 4549.00 Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: 4496.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4447.00 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s gains confirm, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4636.70, a long-term Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is at 4496.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Northbound

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4824.25 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4820.50 @ 07:15 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 4746.25/4696.75 Low Dec 14 / 13
• SUP 2: 4674.59 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 4576.40 50-day EMA

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract has traded higher this week, confirming once again a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. Note too that the contract has recently cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high, reinforcing current positive trend conditions. This signals scope for a climb towards 4854.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4674.59, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $80.59 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $79.67 - High Dec 18
• PRICE: $79.32 @ 06:56 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: $72.29/71.45 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $69.86 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: $66.90 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $64.81 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures remain in a downtrend despite the most recent gains - a correction. Resistance to watch is $80.59, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a stronger reversal. Last week’s break lower confirmed once again, a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.45 nex, the Jun 23 low.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $76.14 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $74.61 - High Dec 18
• PRICE: $74.14 @ 07:19 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: $67.98/07 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Round number support

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and recent gains appear to be a correction. Resistance to watch is $76.14, the 50-day EMA. Last week’s fresh trend low reinforces a bearish theme and the break of $69.08, Dec 7 low, confirms a resumption of the trend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position. A resumption of weakness would open $67.07, the Jun 23 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Reversal Signal

• RES 4: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 1: $2054.30- 50.0% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• PRICE: $2041.8 @ 07:11 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13

Gold traded sharply higher Dec 13. This signals a short-term reversal and the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb toward key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary bull trend. Initial firm support lies at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $24.519/25.761 - 61.8% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg / High Dec 4
• PRICE: $24.063 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver traded sharply higher on Dec 13 highlighting a reversal. The metal is also trading closer to its recent highs, reinforcing the developing bullish theme. The Dec 13 price pattern appears to be a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, this highlights potential for a continuation higher. An extension would open $24.519, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at $25.761, the Dec 4 high. Key support lies at $22.510, the Dec 13 low.