MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Firm Despite Tariff Risk
Price Signal Summary – AUD Strength Despite Tariff Risk
- The initial sell-off on Feb 3 in the S&P E-Minis contract and the breach of support at 5948.00, Jan 27 low, continues to highlight a possible S/T reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains and a bull cycle remains in play. Last week’s gains marked a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24.
- A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and last week’s move down reinforces current conditions. 151.06, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 149.69, the Dec 9 low. Firm resistance is seen at 154.70, the 50-day EMA. AUDUSD is trading closer to its recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure is unchanged and remains bearish. The Feb 3 fresh cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.EURUSD continues to trade below last week’s highs. Attention is on a bullish candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend.
- A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal has again traded to a fresh cycle high. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Recent weakness in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.20. Price has traded through the average, a clear break of it would suggest scope for a deeper retracement.
- Bund futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The recent pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play for now, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s extension has reinforced current conditions.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Potential Reversal Signal
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 1.0435/42 50-day EMA / High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.0306 @ 08:21 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 1.0272/0141 Low Feb 4 / 3 and the bear trigger.,
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18 ’23 bull leg
EURUSD continues to trade below last week’s highs. Attention is on a bullish candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 1.0435, the 50-day EMA, marks a key resistance. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. The bear trigger is 1.0141, the Feb 3 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Below Last Week’s High
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.2348 @ 08:22 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / Jan 3
- SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
GBPUSD is fading further off the Feb 5 high. The pair has recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal and strengthen a bearish threat.
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Below The Pivot Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8378 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.8349 @ 08:25 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 0.8297/8248 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP gains last week appear to have undermined a recent bearish threat, however, the pullback from last Thursday’s high does highlight a developing bearish threat, once again. 0.8378, the Jan 6 high, has been defined as a ley short-term resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a continuation lower would open 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and bear trigger.
USDJPY TECHS: Oversold But Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 3: 154.70 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 153.72 Low Jan 27
- RES 1: 152.89 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 151.93 @ 08:26 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 150.93 Low Feb 07
- SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and last week’s move down reinforces current conditions. 151.06, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 149.69, the Dec 9 low. Firm resistance is seen at 154.70, the 50-day EMA. Note that the pair has entered oversold territory. A recovery would be considered corrective and would allow the oversold condition to unwind.
EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Key Support
- RES 4: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 3: 161.40 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 160.50 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 157.97/158.86 Low Feb 3 / High Feb 6
- PRICE: 156.52 @ 08:27 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 155.61 Low Feb 10
- SUP 2: 155.19/15 3.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains present and last week’s move down reinforces current conditions. The cross cleared 158.24, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, and pierced 156.18, the Dec 3 low and key support. A continuation lower would open 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.40, the 50-day EMA. The short-term trend is oversold, gains would allow this condition to unwind.
AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Stays Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6302 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6285 @ 08:28 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is trading closer to its recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure is unchanged and remains bearish. The Feb 3 fresh cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6302, the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of both levels would be bullish.
USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4329 @ 08:30 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 1.4270 Low Feb 5
- SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
USDCAD is trading closer to last week’s lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. The Feb 3 cycle high reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would alter the picture and signal a reversal.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bull Phase Remains In Play
- RES 4: 134.94 High Dec 17
- RES 3: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 134.29 High Dec 20
- RES 1: 133.73 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 133.24 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 132.53 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24
- SUP 3: 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
Bund futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The recent pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the corrective bull cycle that started Jan 14. Sights are on 133.73, a Fibonacci retracement point. Firm short-term support has been defined at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 117.980 High Jan 3 / 5
- PRICE: 117.780 @ 08:06 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 117.583 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.373 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and a key support
Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Last week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear breach of 117.880, 50.0% of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg, would signal scope for an extension towards 118.258, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg. Initial support to watch lies at 117.373, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bull Flag Formation
- RES 4: 107.233 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.045 High Jan 3
- PRICE: 106.925 @ 08:07 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 106.805 Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 106.772 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 106.600/515 Low Jan 31 / 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support
A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play. The contract has recently traded through a number of important resistance points and the latest impulsive gains highlight a stronger reversal. Furthermore, the recent pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. The focus is on 107.081, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 106.775, the 20-day EMA. First support is 106.805, the Feb 3 low.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 95.57 High Dec 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 95.11 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 94.35 High Feb 6
- PRICE: 93.32 @ 08:08 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 92.50/91.52 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
- SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
- SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play for now, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s extension has reinforced current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. Sights are on the 94.75, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at 92.50, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Jul 7
- PRICE: 120.47 @ 08:09 GMT Feb 7
- SUP 1: 119.78 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price has breached both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the upleg and sights are on 120.98 (pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the correction.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 5455.00 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5434.10 2.236 proj of the Dec 20 - Jan 8 - Jan 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5381.13 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 1: 5380.00 High Feb 11
- PRICE: 5377.00 @ 08:14 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 5211.11 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5094.95 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15
- SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support
Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains and a bull cycle remains in play. Last week’s gains marked a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The focus is on 5381.13 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5211.11, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 5094.95.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Short-Term Reversal Threat
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31
- RES 1: 6123.25 High Feb 7
- PRICE: 6067.50 @ 08:13 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 6014.00/5935.50 Intraday low / Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance
The initial sell-off on Feb 3 in the S&P E-Minis contract and the breach of support at 5948.00, Jan 27 low, continues to highlight a possible S/T reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (J5) Trading Closer To Its Latest Lows
- RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $78.80/81.20 - High Jan 23 / 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $76.56 @ 08:06 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: $74.10 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
- SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 and a key support
Brent futures are improving, but continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention remains on the 50-day EMA, at $75.40. The contract has traded through the average, a clear break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $71.25, the Dec 20 low. A reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the bull trigger at $81.20, the Jan 15 high.
WTI TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $75.18/79.48 - High Feb 3 / High Apr 12 ‘24
- PRICE: $72.97 @ 08:16 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: $70.43 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
- SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
Recent weakness in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.20. Price has traded through the average, a clear break of it would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $68.05, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. On the upside, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.
GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $2955.3 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11
- PRICE: $2912.7 @ 08:17 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: $2834.3 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 2: $2776.3 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2754.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2716.9 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal has again traded to a fresh cycle high. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2776.3, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.652 - High Feb 7
- PRICE: $31.815 @ 08:20 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: $30.814 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver traded higher last week. Key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel a recent bearish theme. This would open the $33.00 handle and expose $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at $30.814, the 50-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear break of the EMA would reinstate the recent bearish theme.