MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Needs to Top Resistance to Cancel Bearish Threat

Price Signal Summary – AUDUSD Needs to Break Resistance to Cancel Bearish Threat

• The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. The contract has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. A resumption of the bear leg would open 4907.57, a Fibonacci retracement. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading above 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. On the upside, the contract recently traded through the 20-day EMA and resistance at 4990.00, the Apr 15 high. This highlights a potentially stronger reversal.
• GBPUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The trend condition is bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up and the recent break lower, maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish. However, this week’s volatile session highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. The pair is trading lower again today reinforcing the current short-term bearish threat. Sights are on the 50-day EMA at 152.44, a key support. AUDUSD has recovered from its lows earlier this week. The move higher exposes initial resistance at 0.6587, the Apr 29 high. A break of this hurdle would cancel a bearish threat and highlight a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19.
• Gold traded lower Tuesday and breached initial support at $2291.6, the Apr 23 low. The precious metal has also traded through the 20-day EMA and this highlights a corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2245.1, the 50-day EMA. WTI futures traded lower this week. Price has breached key support at the 50-day EMA, at $81.05. The clear breach of this average strengthens a short-term bearish theme and highlights scope for a deeper correction.
• The trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows last week, confirming once again a resumption of the downtrend. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. The recent breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0767 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0753 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 1.0733 @ 05:46 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 1.0650/0601 Low May 1 / Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.0518 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high
• SUP 4: 1.0496 Low Oct 13 ‘23

EURUSD is trading above its recent lows. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.0718, the 20-day EMA. The latest move higher appears to be a correction and the trend direction remains down. A resumption of the trend would open 1.0568, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0518, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. For bulls, a clear break of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery. The 50-day EMA is at 1.0767.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.2597 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2570/72 High Apr 29 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2550 @ 06:06 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 1.2423/2300 Low Apr 24 / 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10

GBPUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The trend condition is bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up and the recent break lower, maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the trend would open 1.2266, the Nov 14 2023 low. Resistance to watch is 1.2572, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be bullish.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 0.8704 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8683 High Jan 2
• RES 2: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8600/45 High Apr 24 / 23
• PRICE: 0.8554 @ 06:18 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 0.8531 Low Apr 30
• SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

A bear threat in EURGBP remains present. The latest move down undermines a recent bullish theme and instead highlights potential for a deeper retracement. This has exposed 0.8521, the Apr 17 low. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a move towards the key support at 0.8498/93, the Feb 14 low and Aug 23 2023 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.8645, the Apr 23 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 159.55 2.618 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 158.97 2.50 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 157.99/158.44 High May 1 / HIgh Apr 26
• RES 1: 156.28 High May 2
• PRICE: 152.93 @ 06:37 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 152.76 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 152.44 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.17 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish. However, this week’s volatile session highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. The pair is trading lower again today reinforcing the current short-term bearish threat. Sights are on the 50-day EMA at 152.44, a key support. Note that trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low, lies at 151.17. Initial resistance to watch is 156.28, Thursday’s high.

EURJPY TECHS: Testing Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 171.64 2.00 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 171.56 High Apr 29
• RES 2: 170.04 1.764 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 1: 167.39/168.66 High May 2 / 1
• PRICE: 164.27 @ 06:57 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 164.10/02 50-day EMA / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 163.02 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 162.28 Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: 161.95 Low Mar 18

The EURJPY trend condition remains bullish and the recent volatile bearish phase is considered corrective. This is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. The cross has breached the 20-day EMA and is through support at 164.66, a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. The 50-day EMA, at 164.10, has also been pierced. A clear break of these supports would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is 167.39, Thursday’s high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6668 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 0.6644 High Apr 9 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6617 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6587 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 0.6575 @ 07:32 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 0.6465/6363 Low May 1 / Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support

AUDUSD has recovered from its lows earlier this week. The move higher exposes initial resistance at 0.6587, the Apr 29 high. A break of this hurdle would cancel a bearish threat and highlight a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. This would open 0.6644, the Apr 9 high. On the downside, a move below 0.6465, the May 1 low, is required to reinstate a bearish threat and instead signal scope for a extension towards 0.6363, the Apr 19 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above Key Support

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3785 High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3670 @ 07:58 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 1.3632 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 1.3622 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD traded sharply higher Tuesday but has since reversed the rally. Despite the pullback, a bullish trend condition remains intact for now and the move lower appears to be a correction. The pair has recently cleared 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 highs, strengthening a bullish theme. Note too, that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Key support to watch 1.3622, 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 132.24 High Apr 19
• RES 3: 132.00 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 131.47 High Apr 23
• RES 1: 131.13 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.68 @ 05:17 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 129.53 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 129.26 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 129.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 128.88 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

The trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows last week, confirming once again a resumption of the downtrend. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has also recently been cleared. Sights are on 129.26, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is at 133.05, the Apr 12 high. First resistance to watch is at 131.13, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Trend Set-Up Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 2: 117.620 High Apr 19
• RES 3: 117.260 High Apr 23
• RES 1: 117.077 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.750 @ 05:32 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 116.230 Low May 1
• SUP 2: 116.135 1.50 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.964 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.752 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

The downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and Tuesday’s move lower reinforces this condition. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low of 116.230 yesterday. Key support at 117.200, Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared, confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend. Sights are on 116.135, a Fibonacci projection. First resistance to watch is 117.077, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term correction.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 105.790 High Mar 25 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.680 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 105.525 High Apr 23
• RES 1: 105.367/425 20-day EMA / High Apr 19
• PRICE: 105.215 @ 05:52 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 105.045 Low Apr 30
• SUP 2: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 104.917 1.764 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.800 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing

The trend condition in Schatz futures is unchanged and the direction remains down. The recent break of support at 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Tuesday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Sights are on the 105.00 handle. Key resistance has been defined at 105.790, the Mar 25 high. Initial firm resistance is 105.367, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 97.74 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 97.28 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 96.85 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 96.57 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 95.35 @ Close May 2
• SUP 1: 95.36 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 94.52 2.382 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. The recent breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies have recently crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for a move towards the 95.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 96.85, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 120.28 High Mar 14
• RES 2: 119.55 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 117.95/119.10 High Apr 23 / 10
• PRICE: 117.39 @ Close May 2
• SUP 1: 115.76 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 3: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.09 1.382 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Recent weakness reinforces a bearish theme. Support at 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a bear trigger, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would highlight an important bearish development and open 115.70 initially, the Dec 8 2023 low (cont). Key short-term resistance to watch is 119.10, the Mar 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5079.00 High Apr 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5043.00 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 5006.00 High Apr 30
• PRICE: 4882.00 @ 06:11 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 4877.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 4700.00 Round number support

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading above 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. On the upside, the contract recently traded through the 20-day EMA and resistance at 4990.00, the Apr 15 high. This highlights a potentially stronger reversal. An extension higher would expose the bull trigger at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high. Key support lies at 4762.00, a break would be bearish. Initial support to watch is 4877.90, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 5333.50 High Apr 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5285.00 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 5213.25 High Apr 15
• RES 1: 5120.92/5154.25 20-day EMA / High Apr 29
• PRICE: 5105.50 @ 07:13 BST May 3
• SUP 1: 5022.25/4963.50 Low Apr 25 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4863.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 4799.50 Low Jan 17

The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. The contract has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. A resumption of the bear leg would open 4907.57, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance at 5120.92, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear breach would instead signal a reversal and expose key resistance at 5333.50, Apr 1 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N4) Clears Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $95.18 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.00 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.09 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $88.64/91.18 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $83.92 @ 06:59 BST May 3
• SUP 1: $82.32 - 50.0% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 2: $80.24 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $75.91 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures have pulled back from their most recent highs and a bearish theme remains intact. Price has cleared key support at $85.22, the 50-day EMA. The clear breach of this EMA signals scope for a deeper correction towards $80.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $91.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Initial resistance is $88.64, Apr 26 high.

WTI TECHS: (M4) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: $91.24 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $84.46/86.97 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $79.19 @ 07:09 BST May 3
• SUP 1: $78.03 - 50% of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 upleg
• SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.47 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.11 - Low Jan 3

WTI futures traded lower this week. Price has breached key support at the 50-day EMA, at $81.05. The clear breach of this average strengthens a short-term bearish theme and highlights scope for a deeper correction. This has opened $76.07, the Mar 11 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. Initial firm resistance is at $84.46, the Apr 26 high.

GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2352.6/2431.5 - High Apr 16 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $2304.2 @ 07:15 BST May 3
• SUP 1: $2281.7 - Low May 1
• SUP 2: $2245.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

Gold traded lower Tuesday and breached initial support at $2291.6, the Apr 23 low. The precious metal has also traded through the 20-day EMA and this highlights a corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2245.1, the 50-day EMA. Note that a short-term bear cycle is allowing significant overbought condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Exposes Key Support

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $27.732/29.797 - High Apr 26 / 12
• PRICE: $26.529 @ 08:06 BST May 3
• SUP 1: $26.046/018 - 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 2: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Silver has traded lower this week, confirming an extension of the pullback from $29.797, the Apr 12 high. This move down maintains the current corrective cycle and sights are on support at the 50-day EMA, at $26.046. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at $29.797, the Apr 12 high. Initial resistance is at $27.732, the Apr 26 high.